Seems like the hot topic these days, so I made a quick dashboard to monitor reserves and estimate runway. Based on the current rates, reserves won’t run out till 17-Aug.
Tweet: https://twitter.com/0xOnlyFacts/status/1503236616072343553
Dashboard: https://app.flipsidecrypto.com/dashboard/anchor-reserves-monitoring-dashboard-rJiEfD
Feedback appreciated!
It looks quite straightforward and simple. Great stuff! 
This is helpful information - however, the sooner a fix is implemented the better.
Those Flipside guys seem solid …
Seems overly optimistic, as it takes last 21 days as a base, not last day, which overestimates it then during ever accelerating depletion.
grafana is still more accurate, but even that underestimates and doesn’t account for the accelerating depletion trend.
Very good work. Grafana is one of the best dashboard.
Hi Real1, you are right in that sense. Yes we can think of it as an upper bound for now. I purposely kept it conservative, in favour of actual changes driving the projection rather than speculative changes. The point is not to get a accurate forecast, but to be a speedometer of the depletion rate. The projection is merely to show the implication of the depletion rate and give a date - because we all like something definite.
As you have shown, there are people who are projecting based on that accelerating depletion. I have considered that, but chose not to do it because of the various assumptions that needs to be made, regarding changes to the protocol and actions of the participants.
Therefore, I opt for this design that is the most flexible and adaptable to market changes. If the protocol drops the Earn APY and some participant pull out their stakes, this dashboard will be able to measure the Net impact of that change. That would be the goal of this dashboard.
P.S. A future could exists where the depletion rate is positive (reserves increase). In that case, all accelerating depletion models will fail.
Updated with a projection that takes into account the accelerating depletion rate!
Well done! Foretelling future is never a sure thing. It helps to see it both with worst case and more optimistic scenarios.
Sadly at this point the depletion is accelerating and there are no near-term things on the horizon that would meaningfully change it. We all hope that it’s going to change - and soon, and the depletion will start slowing down and ultimately reverse. But, realistically…
The historical depletion rate is just going up non-stop. Looks like the worst-case scenario is more and more likely to happen every day.
The worst case scenario is LFG top it up again.
Yup, that seems like the case.
Why do you think that?
With APR to go down steadily now and presumably more borrowing under new initiatives and potential bull market increased demand, an LFG top up is necessary and clearly the only way to avoid Anchor going off a cliff. That’s the only way to reach a sustainable balance without a major system shock and then risk that brings.
That being said, the major issue of vampiric yield abusers needs to be taken care of ASAP (under the saUST proposal mechanics I think) to give Anchor a real chance and to to avoid harming its reputation.
As of today, the average increase in depletion rate is 2%. This means that reserves will halve by 1st of May. Unfortunately, it means that the dynamic reduction of 1.5% is not going to be enough.
We need drastic and significant changes now.
…or another 500M LFG top up. This time hopefully giving enough time to reach sustainability while the APR gradually goes down, borrowing goes up as more options become available, and the parasitic looping abusers practices are stopped (the last part really needs to be done asap, otherwise Anchor has no future).
Noob here. What happens when the reserves deplete? Are users that have bLuna bonded at risk?
No, the yield reserve provides surplus yield to the Earn side to boost up to the 19.5%, soon to start slowly lowering. If the yield reserve depletes, it will go down instantly.
Thank you very much ser