Usually those who dismiss critical thinking and anything contrary to what they want to believe as “fud” have their head buried in the sand. But I digress…
You are missing the whole point here. Fundamentally, there is no reason whatsoever for one to be fearful and withdraw from Anchor - out of fear, I mean (for getting better yields elsewhere, sure) - when and if the APY drops to the unsubsidized rate, or in anticipation of that. Anchor doesn’t engage in big fractional reserve banking (it cannot, with so little demand for loans). Most of the UST deposited is sitting there and doing nothing, ready to withdraw. So, there is very little risk of loss of principal. Certainly less than in a bank (before government insurance) that engaged in fractional reserve banking.
That’s not the point. You clearly haven’t studied history or economics and do not understand the nature of people. People are emotional. People are irrational. (That is why I earlier said that any panic ‘bank run’ would be irrational.) Fundamentally, there is no reason for a ‘collapse’ as you describe it. But, prices are not set by fundamentals. (Again, you seem to simply not comprehend that very critical element of how the markets work.) Prices are set by people for any stock of crypto like LUNA. The current price is where the demand and supply meet in an equilibrium. Fundamentals matter not one bit, at least in determining the current market price. It’s all emotions and what people think, be it “right” or “wrong” (or “fud”) doesn’t matter. People, especially in crypto, go along with the crowd. All it can take is one “influencer” (who has no clue of what he’s talking about) to claim the apocalypse and enough others to believe him and spread the message, and it’s a snowball effect that has too much momentum to stop, as even those who know better get out just because that’s where the trend is going and the risk has went past their tolerance threshold. Trends are powerful, my friend (I suggest that you study some economics and how the markets work to help you understand things).
In short, it’s about the sentiment. If the sentiment turns negative, while fundamentals are still solid there is true “fud”, that can turn the trend and can have outsized effects - before, over the long run, the market finds the equilibrium, but not before irreversible damage (liquidations and all that) is caused.
Sentiment has been turning negative, or less positive at the very least. Look at how UST to USD rates have declined recently. There used to be good business of buying 1 UST at 1 USD worth of LUNA and selling it for 1/3%, 1/2%, even up to 1% mark-up on exchanges, as there was a heavy influx of real money into UST. That is no longer quite so starkly so.
If sentiment turns wholly negative - yes, “fud” in your preferred terms - that by and of itself can exacerbate downward pressure on LUNA price, and amplify - potentially many fold - the mechanics-driven effect on the LUNA price, as UST are burned and LUNA are minted. The buyers of LUNA are not static. With negative sentiment and “fud” (be it irrational as I earlier described), you’ll have triple downward pressure on LUNA of more minting (increasing supply) by burning UST, less demand due to negative sentiment, and more sales of LUNA by holders selling at the worst possible time (though the 21-day staking lock-up helps and exists to minimize precisely this).
In short, there is no science and math that can show what will happen. No one knows what will happen. It’s emotionally driven and not rational human actions, with valuation that has historically always way overshot both on the highs and lows. The risk is that if the snowball gets big enough and gains enough trajectory, it becomes very hard to stop it.
The risk is there, that’s a fact. (And if you had listened to Do Kwon’s interviews, you’d know that he’s the first one to admit this very real and significant risk. Once negative sentiment and downward pressure gets past a certain point, there is a real danger zone.) I don’t know enough to be able to quantify it, only to know that it is real and grows than longer LFG dithers on will they or will they not bail out the YR when it runs out come May.
Edit: tl;dr summary - “the only thing Anchor has to fear is fear itself.” (So it sure would be smart to minimize the potential for fear.)
